Washington Report (November 2024)

Election 2024

Public opinion polling on the state of the Presidential race over the last few months consistently showed that November 5 promised to be a nail biter. In fact, commentators and political experts were forecasting that we would not see final Presidential results until days after the election. In discussions we had before election day, it was noted that in these close contests, the results often break hard in one candidate’s direction. That turned out to be true on election night. It was pretty clear early in the evening that the Trump/Vance ticket was going to hold swing states that were on the margin (Georgia and North Carolina) and prevail in key battlegrounds like Pennsylvania. Michigan and Wisconsin were called for Trump the next day. In fact, the President-elect swept all the swing states and currently has 312 Electoral votes—needing only 270—and won the popular vote. He will be sworn in January 20.

As expected, the GOP regained control of the U.S. Senate with 53 seats in the 100-seat chamber, picking up seats in West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana. Two other close races in Nevada and Arizona were called for Democrats giving them 47 seats.

For the first time in 17 years, Senate Republicans have selected a new leader. As you know, Mitch McConnell stepped aside and the race for the top leadership spot was between Senators John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX) to be his successor. Senator Rick Scott (R-FL) was also in the running, but his bid was seen as a long shot. In a secret ballot held early afternoon today, Thune prevailed and will lead what is shaping up to be an ambitious Republican agenda heading into 2025.

Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will move to minority leader in 2025. The House leadership will also remain intact with current House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and current Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) continuing to lead their parties. There are a handful of races that have yet to be called and so House control remains an open question.

In addition to party leadership changes, important moves on key committees of interest to WIA will also occur. In January, Senator John Boozman (R-AR) will take the helm of the Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee. As you know, this panel has been working on reauthorizing the Farm Bill and will continue those efforts in the 119^th Congress as it is unlikely a Farm Bill will be negotiated and passed in the Lame Duck Congressional session occurring in November and December. The current committee chair, Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), is retiring which will allow Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) to move up as the Ranking Member on this committee. Both Boozman and Klobuchar have been strong supporters of our sector. Not only have they been avid proponents of the Wood Innovation and Community Wood Grant programs—two key WIA policy priorities--but also supportive of policies that would deem sawmill residuals (biomass) as “carbon neutral” from an emissions/Clean Air Act perspective.   Carbon neutrality language is being negotiated as part of the next Farm Bill to complement an existing appropriations policy rider that has been reauthorized every year since 2017.

The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will also be under new leadership with Senator Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) moving from Ranking Member to Chairman. Senator Capito has also been an enduring champion of the wood and forest products industry and appreciative of the jobs our sector supports in her home state. The panel she will chair has the lead on EPA-related issues (air, water and waste) as well as transportation and supply chain issues like truck weight reform. The current Chairman—Senator Tom Carper (D-DE)—is retiring and the role of Ranking Member may be filled by Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR).

On the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, current Ranking Member John Barrasso (R-WY) would ordinarily slide into the Chairman’s role, but he is running unopposed for Senate Republican Whip and will not be serving on this panel in the 119^th Congress. This committee takes the lead on timber supply and federal forest issues. Likely to take the Chairmanship is Senator Mike Lee (R-UT). Current Chairman Joe Manchin (D-WV) is retiring, and that role may be filled by Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM).

Regarding appropriations, industry ally Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) will chair that key panel.  Senator Collins has been the lead champion on many wood and forest products industry policy priorities in her time in the Senate. Current Chair Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) is expected to be the Ranking Member.

Finally on the Senate Finance Committee, the existing Chair and Ranking Member will flip with Senator Mike Crapo (R-ID) leading the panel and Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) moving to the Ranking spot. Again, as we have noted, tax policy will be a primary focus of Congress and the Administration next year and Finance holds the pen in the upper chamber on all things tax related. 

In the House, there about 11 races that have yet to be called, but as of this writing Republicans had 216 and Democrats 208 seats in the 435 Member lower chamber. Several of the seats that have not been decided are in California, which is historically slow counting votes. At fundraisers WIA has attended prior to the election, both Republican and Democrat lawmakers opined that the party that wins the White House would also take the House. Currently, most pundits believe the Republicans will prevail and enter 2025 with a very slim majority in the House. However, Democrat leadership in the House we spoke to remain hopeful that the remaining ballots that are being counted will break their way and Democrats will take the lower chamber. Either way, the majority will be a slim one for either party.

Assuming the House does remain in GOP, a few key Members of Congress that are strong champions of our sector will remain in key positions of influence. Primary among them is Rep. Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa), Chairman of the House Agriculture Committee. His panel produced a Farm Bill reauthorization measure that was reported out of committee on a bipartisan basis, but never saw floor action. That bill included language reauthorizing and funding both the Wood Innovation and Community Wood Grant programs as well as beneficial forestry and forest management provisions and biomass carbon neutrality language. Rep. Thompson’s district includes National Forest System lands and is heavily populated with hardwood sawmills. GT is also a strong proponent in the workforce development space and is cochair of the House Career and Technical Education Caucus.  He has been a true champion on all of our issues, and we look forward to working with him and his team as they continue their work in these critical roles. 

Likewise, Rep. Bruce Westerman (R-AR) will continue to chair the House Natural Resources Committee—the panel in the House that leads on federal forest and timber-related policy issues as well as the Endangered Species Act. Mr. Westerman is the only Member of the House with a forestry degree and his district is also home to scores of wood and pulp and paper product manufacturing facilities. He has been the lead for the GOP on climate related matters with his Trillion Trees Act that promotes tree planting and wood markets to help reduce and sequester greenhouse gas emissions.  We look forward to our continued work with him and his committee staff.

The all-important Energy and Commerce Committee will be under new leadership as current Chairman Cathy McMorris-Rodgers is retiring and there is a two-way race to succeed her. Vying for the gavel are Brett Guthrie (R-KY) and Bob Latta (R-OH). The E&C Committee leads on all EPA related matters impacting air, water and waste. WIA has a good relationship with both these lawmakers.

And finally, the House Ways & Means Committee, which holds the pen on all tax matters including all of the expired and expiring business credits, will be led by Rep. Jason Smith (R-MO).

The Lame Duck session of the 118^th Congress convened on November 12. We expect very little in the way of substantive legislating save for a Continuing Resolution to fund the government into March of 2025. The National Defense Authorization Act will also be passed, but action on a Farm Bill and tax policy will be punted to the 119^th Congress which convenes January 3.

As the WIA team looks to next year with a new Congress and a new Administration, we intend to remain laser focused on our key federal public policy priorities. These include:

• The Farm Bill: Enacting a final reauthorization bill that renews and funds grant programs to promote wood product markets, including innovative products like mass timber/CLT.
• Tax: Restoring key business tax benefits that have been allowed to lapse or begin phasing out, including 100 percent bonus depreciation and the research and development tax credit, as well as extending the 20 percent tax deduction for pass throughs that expires at the end of 2025.
• Workforce Development: Passing bipartisan Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act reauthorization legislation that fully funds workforce development and apprenticeship programs.

One area of concern with the incoming Administration is its campaign rhetoric around tariffs. While some industry sectors benefited from tariffs during the first Trump Administration, retaliatory tariffs imposed by China on lumber and log exports during the first Trump Administration were devastating for many in the forest product supply chain. Tariffs on inputs to make our machinery is also an area of concern and we will be monitoring developments closely on this front.

As with every election, there will be many new faces in the House and Senate in the 119^th Congress. The WIA team is preparing materials now that will be useful in our introductory meetings with these officials after they are sworn into office in January.